Mark's Blog Report

Oil prices are up more than a dollar to $97.24.  European banks Credit Suisse (CS) and Barclays (BCS) have warned about increased writedowns having a negative impact on their bottom-line, and there are allegations in The Wall Street Journal that Lehman Bros. (LEH) might be facing its rockiest quarter since the mortgage crisis began due to its exposure to commercial real estate loans.  The futures market, however, is signaling a noticeably higher start for the major indices.

The bullish bias isn't being driven by any specific corporate news.  Granted Wal-Mart (WMT) topped fourth quarter estimates by two cents, yet its guidance for the first quarter and fiscal 2009 is on the conservative side at best when pitted against current consensus estimates.

The big news this morning is that Fidel Castro has resigned as president of Cuba.  Anyone attributing the futures rally to this news, though, is probably smoking something other than a Cuban cigar.  The island nation might matter from a political standpoint, but from an economic standpoint, it isn't much of a factor.  The country's estimated GDP for 2007 is slightly more than what Microsoft (MSFT) offered to acquire Yahoo! (YHOO).

Some more relevant factors include a report that Delta (DAL) and Northwest (NWAC) are near a deal to merge, a defense of Dow component AIG (AIG) as a value play in this week's Barron's, and perhaps, simply, some bullish sentiment shining through following the Fed's rate cuts.

The major indices continue to trade modestly below their best levels.  Crude oil has touched $100 per barrel, and is currently fluctuating near that mark.

Embattled bond insurer MBIA (MBI 12.24) announced the resignation of CEO Gary Dunton effective immediately.  Taking Dunton's place will be Joseph Brown, who served as MBIA's CEO until May 2004 and recently retired as executive chairman in May 2007.