Mark's Blog Report

Pending Home Sales Slide 7.7%
March 3rd, 2009 11:00 AM

The latest pending home sales report showed continued weakness in the U.S. housing sector, with sales down much more than expected.

The National Association of Realtors revealed Tuesday morning that pending home sales fell 7.7% in January, after unexpectedly rebounding in December.

Economists were expecting a 3.5% decline in the month. December's gain was also revised down to 4.8% from an initially reported 6.3% increase.

Pending home sales are real estate contracts that have been signed but not finalized, and are used to predict existing home sales.

Existing home sales in January fell 5.3%, against expectations for a 1.1% increase.

Other housing data released recently showed new home sales fell to an annualized pace of 309k in January, a 10.2% decline from December. Economists were expecting a 2.1% fall.


Posted by Mark Hemingway on March 3rd, 2009 11:00 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Daily Update on this Friday the 13th
March 13th, 2009 12:01 PM
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following a strong open in stocks and comments made by China that raised concerns of potential selling in bonds. However, stocks have since given back their earlier gains. The Dow is now nearly unchanged while the Nasdaq is now down 7 points. The bond market is currently down 26/32, but strength yesterday will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates close to yesterday's levels.

The first of today's two economic reports was January's Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It showed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $36.0 billion in January. This was lower than forecasts of a $38.0 billion deficit, but this data usually does not have a major influence on bonds or mortgage rates.

The second report of the morning was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March. It showed a reading of 56.6 that was a little higher than the 55.0 that was expected and a slight increase from February's final reading. This means that consumer confidence was a little stronger than expected. That can be considered bad news for mortgage rates, but since the variance was minor it has not impacted trading this morning.

The comments made by China has some traders believing that they may begin to sell holdings in the near future. Since they hold approximately $727 billion of U.S. debt, or 6% of the total outstanding debt, a selling campaign would likely drive prices lower. Accordingly, traders are taking a cautious approach this morning.

Next week brings us the release of several important reports, including key inflation readings and another FOMC meeting. There is relevant data scheduled for release Monday when February's Industrial Production data will be posted. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Posted by Mark Hemingway on March 13th, 2009 12:01 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Daily Update for Wednesday, March 11, 2009
March 11th, 2009 12:14 PM
Wednesday's bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic news and only small gains in stocks. The Dow is currently up 20 points while the Nasdaq has gained 6 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage near yesterday's levels.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release again today. Tomorrow brings us the first relevant data of the week. The 10-year Note sale is being held today while the 30-year Bond auction will be done tomorrow. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM each day. It is fairly common to see weakness in bonds right before the sales as trading firms prepare for them. If the auctions are met with a strong demand, that weakness is usually erased almost immediately. Therefore, if today's sale is met with a strong demand, we may see movement in bonds and rates this afternoon.

February's Retail Sales data will be released tomorrow morning. This report is extreme ly important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month's report is expected to show a decline in sales of approximately 0.4%. If it reveals a larger decline in sales, the bond market should rise and mortgage rates will likely fall. If it reveals an increase, I expect to see bond prices fall and mortgage rates rise tomorrow morning.

We also will get weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department tomorrow morning. They are expected to say that 640,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be little change from the previous week's total, but this data is not nearly important as the sales data is and will likely have little impact on the markets or rates.

Posted by Mark Hemingway on March 11th, 2009 12:14 PMPost a Comment (0)

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